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Probability of Blackjack Dealer Outcomes at Various Shoe Sizes

shoe size: 2, dealer stands on soft 17
dealer card bust 17 18 19 20 21 blackjack
A 11.654% 12.613% 13.100% 12.949% 13.155% 5.156% 31.373%
2 35.329% 13.937% 13.335% 13.074% 12.400% 11.925% 0.000%
3 37.479% 13.276% 13.068% 12.458% 12.181% 11.538% 0.000%
4 39.854% 13.070% 12.021% 12.104% 11.637% 11.314% 0.000%
5 42.251% 12.100% 12.283% 11.732% 10.902% 10.732% 0.000%
6 42.213% 16.622% 10.617% 10.675% 10.122% 9.751% 0.000%
7 26.114% 37.048% 13.820% 7.801% 7.878% 7.339% 0.000%
8 24.163% 12.970% 36.118% 12.902% 6.886% 6.961% 0.000%
9 23.090% 12.094% 11.202% 35.405% 12.112% 6.098% 0.000%
10/J/Q/K 21.319% 11.290% 11.216% 11.301% 33.561% 3.546% 7.767%
total 28.263% 14.530% 13.879% 13.408% 17.809% 7.308% 4.803%

shoe size: 4, dealer stands on soft 17
dealer card bust 17 18 19 20 21 blackjack
A 11.557% 12.963% 13.084% 13.049% 13.097% 5.332% 30.918%
2 35.345% 13.958% 13.413% 13.020% 12.401% 11.862% 0.000%
3 37.435% 13.392% 13.057% 12.506% 12.106% 11.504% 0.000%
4 39.648% 13.059% 12.311% 12.121% 11.642% 11.218% 0.000%
5 41.941% 12.164% 12.253% 11.751% 11.111% 10.779% 0.000%
6 42.267% 16.584% 10.617% 10.651% 10.147% 9.733% 0.000%
7 26.174% 36.953% 13.800% 7.833% 7.871% 7.370% 0.000%
8 24.317% 12.913% 36.026% 12.880% 6.913% 6.951% 0.000%
9 22.965% 12.047% 11.602% 35.240% 12.056% 6.090% 0.000%
10/J/Q/K 21.265% 11.216% 11.179% 11.221% 33.892% 3.498% 7.729%
total 28.209% 14.530% 13.914% 13.380% 17.916% 7.295% 4.757%

shoe size: 6, dealer stands on soft 17
dealer card bust 17 18 19 20 21 blackjack
A 11.547% 13.002% 13.082% 13.059% 13.091% 5.350% 30.868%
2 35.350% 13.966% 13.439% 13.002% 12.402% 11.841% 0.000%
3 37.419% 13.430% 13.054% 12.523% 12.082% 11.493% 0.000%
4 39.580% 13.056% 12.406% 12.127% 11.644% 11.187% 0.000%
5 41.841% 12.184% 12.244% 11.758% 11.179% 10.795% 0.000%
6 42.284% 16.571% 10.619% 10.643% 10.155% 9.728% 0.000%
7 26.194% 36.921% 13.793% 7.843% 7.868% 7.382% 0.000%
8 24.369% 12.894% 35.995% 12.872% 6.922% 6.947% 0.000%
9 22.924% 12.031% 11.735% 35.185% 12.037% 6.088% 0.000%
10/J/Q/K 21.247% 11.191% 11.167% 11.194% 34.001% 3.482% 7.717%
total 28.192% 14.525% 13.926% 13.368% 17.953% 7.287% 4.749%

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data and analysis © 2001 Tom McClure